When it comes right down to it NBC claims their problem with Conan was all about the ratings… but I find this odd. When Jay Leno took over for Johnny Carson, his initial ratings were a fraction of Johnny’s. In fact, it took Leno over a year to build a new audience base.
In turn, when Conan took over for Leno… his initial ratings drop was proportional to Leno’s when he took over. Due to the similarity, one could argue this is a mathematical trend which would suggest, if given the time, Conan would have rebuilt his audience in a proportional amount of time. However, NBC was extremely impatient and Leno wanted his job back.
Programming wise, this is a major problem for NBC. Late night programming has ALWAYS been about long-term investments not short-term goals. And right now, NBC does not seem interested in making that investment, an investment in a younger audience. When a network switches hosts they make a commitment to a young generation in order to develop a new audience base. It’s a cycle. And NBC has broken the cycle… which will most likely be their undoing.
Food for thought: Leno’s rating NOW is not any better than Conan’s was. The only time he has beaten Lettermen in the ratings is when CBS airs repeats. This illustrates the root of problem because Leno is no longer in a position to cultivate a fresh audience base. Sure, Leno has his faithful, but I don’t see any signs of his faithful growing.
Over the next few years, as my generation becomes the foundation of the late night audience, I predict Kimmel and Ferguson will slowly climb in the ratings, which should make for a very interesting battle.
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